Tropical Storm Research Center

2011 Hurricane Season Ends November 30

2011-11-16T03:31:00.002-06:00

While the official end of the 2011 Hurricane Season is November 30, we are just offering a season ending recap. First of all, thank you for following our postings this year. Our volunteer team of Tropical Storm System analysts has devoted countless hours in detailing, tracking and projecting this season's Tropical Storm activity to try our best to keep our viewers safe and informed. We are relieved that the storm involvement on the coastal US was relatively minor as compared to previous years. We will continue to monitor things well into December and if any late season systems develop, we will be back to post updates.

Our team will once again refine our detailed software in the off-season and we will be back in early May, 2012, to start posting Tropical Storm and Hurricane Preparedness information in the pre-season. Thank you again, take care and be safe.

Hurricane Rina Update October 25

2011-10-25T05:08:00.000-05:00

HURRICANE RINA was upgraded to Category 2 storm overnight and will most likely reach Major category within 24 hours, but the upper level shear and dry air that the storm will be encountering soon will change the track of the storm into an area where additional strengthening may be limited. However, persons in the south half of Florida should be watching this storm's progress because even as a weakening storm - there could be huge amounts of rain and potential lowlands flooding this weekend and into early November.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Named Storm Rina

2011-10-24T06:18:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Rina developed in the west central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. This storm is encountering upper level wind shear, however, it is nearly stationary which means that the shear will move out of the area in a few days while leaving the potential for this storm to increase in intensity later this week. Some of the NHC tracking models are showing a western Florida involvement sometime close to Nov. 02 to Nov. 04. Other models are showing that this storm will turn westerly and dissipate over the land areas of eastern Mexico. It is much too early to project accurate tracking past this Saturday, October 29, but we will post any information as it becomes available.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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TS Ophelia and TS Philippe Final Info

2011-09-25T05:58:00.001-05:00

Final Tropical Storm Ophelia - and Tropical Storm Philippe information.

As anticipated, TS Ophelia will remain well off the east coast of the US and will not bring anything but slightly higher surf conditions to some areas next week. We will not be tracking Tropical Storm Philippe at all because the storm will move northward and will stay well out to sea in the central Atlantic.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

We are also providing an interactive Watch and Warning web link for persons who wish to get details on localized conditions:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Named Storm Ophelia - Initial Advisory Sept. 21

2011-09-21T09:19:00.000-05:00

Tropical Storm Ophelia is located in the central Atlantic about 2000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The storm will be encountering upper level wind shear and some dry air masses which will prevent it from strengthening much for the next 3 to 5 days. This storm is moving west at 12 to 14 MPH and is taking a southern track thus far. This storm will affect the Leeward and Windward Islands and Puerto Rico late this weekend into early next week. While it is much to early to give a precise track that may affect the southeastern US, we are asking that persons in Florida start monitoring this storm's progress. We will post additional information as needed in a few days when this storm's progress and potential track has been analyzed more.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

We are also providing an interactive Watch and Warning web link for persons who wish to get details on localized conditions:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Tropical Storm Maria - Final Update

2011-09-13T03:06:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Maria Update and final post, 4 AM EDT September 13, 2011. As anticipated, high pressure with an associated dry air mass is steering the storm more northward away from the coastal US - following a similar track to Hurricane Katia. US east coastal regions may see increased surf and the resulting rip currents as well as some rain showers occasionally for the next week or so. However, the effects will be minimal. This will be our final Tropical Storm Maria posting.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

We are also providing an interactive Watch and Warning web link for persons who wish to get details on localized conditions:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

Weather Information Copyrighted TSRC 2011, All Rights Reserved.

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Named Storms Maria and Nate

2011-09-08T03:47:00.000-05:00

Named Storms Maria and Nate formed from tropical low pressure areas late Wednesday, September 7. Tropical Storm Maria is currently in the east central Atlantic moving north-northwest. Because Maria will be affected by upper level shear and dry air masses, this storm may not reach hurricane levels for several days. Maria tracking models are showing a northerly curve starting around Tuesday, September 13 and it will most likely follow a similar route that Hurricane Katia is currently taking off shore along the US east Coast. Katia is causing high surf and dangerous rip currents along the east coast. Maria will most likely cause the same effects starting around Tuesday, September 13.

Tropical Storm Nate is in the south central Gulf of Mexico. The tracking models are showing northwesterly movement and hurricane status by sometime Friday, September 9. Probabilities are that Named Storm Nate will be making a northeast Mexico landfall late Monday or early Tuesday, however one tracking model is showing a track much farther to the north and we are watching this possibility closely.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

We are also providing an interactive Watch and Warning web link for persons who wish to get details on localized conditions:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Hurricane Katia Update September 07, 2011

2011-09-07T07:18:00.000-05:00

Hurricane Katia Update September 07, 2011. As the result of the storm slowing it's forward movement to less than 10 miles per hour to the northwest, two weather systems are now steering Katia slightly away from the US mainland. However, since the Tropical Storm level wind field surrounding this hurricane is so broad, parts of the US coast from Georgia to New England will see an increase in surf heights and higher than normal tides along with dangerous rip currents and some localized rain over the next several days.

We are carefully watching Tropical Depression # 14 - This one is tracking much farther to the south than Katia and may become a southeastern US issue by the middle of next week. There is also a disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that may be an issue for Gulf Coast States in just a few days. When either of these low pressure areas becomes a 'named storm', we will start new postings accordingly.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Tropical Storm / Hurricane Katia Update and Info

2011-09-02T06:05:00.000-05:00

Tropical Storm / Hurricane Katia has shown a trend in our own tracking models to move further to the west than some other reports are showing. We are renewing our call for persons in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and the Gulf Coast States to monitor this storm's progress very carefully.

We are also just mentioning that Tropical Depression # 13, which will probably become a Tropical Storm later today in the central Gulf of Mexico, will produce huge amounts of rain and gusty winds from the Florida Panhandle to the Louisiana/Texas border. Residents in the southern regions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and northwestern Florida will experience some lowlands flooding, high coastal surf, dangerous rip currents and very strong thunderstorms over the next several days. We will not post any additional data regarding this Gulf storm because of it's close proximity to land already.

We are also watching a low pressure area off the coast of Nova Scotia for possible strengthening. However, this low pressure area is moving out to sea and will not affect the US.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Tropical Storm (soon to be) Hurricane Katia

2011-08-30T06:44:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Katia formed in the mid Atlantic early August 30 from Tropical Depression # 12. This storm is gaining strength rapidly and tracking models are showing this as a Major (Category 3 or higher) Hurricane by late Saturday or early Sunday. While projections at this time are imprecise, we have a concern that one of the tracking models is showing a south Florida involvement in just over a week. Timing is critical as to the upper level flow meeting the storm and influencing it's direction. We will post new information as necessary. However, we are asking that all persons in Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina and the Gulf Coast States start monitoring the progress of this storm and listen carefully to your local official advisories.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Named Storm Irene Information Sunday, August 28, 12:35 Hrs EDT.

2011-08-28T11:51:00.001-05:00

Named Storm Irene Information Sunday, August 28, 12:35 Hrs EDT.

The storm has delivered a record setting blow to the states along the East Coast of the US. Death tolls and damage estimates will be announced by each Governor as inspection teams and medical personnel report in over the next week or so. Many persons well be in shelters for many days yet and power will not be restored to some areas for up to two weeks. Persons using GENERATORS - DO NOT place the generator inside your home or garage. The CARBON MONOXIDE from the exhaust can kill you. Place the generator no closer than 10 feet from your residence and follow ALL the safety statements in the owner's manual regarding usage and refueling. If you are worried about it being stolen, take turns guarding it, but follow ALL applicable laws in your area regarding self protection and the protection of property.

For persons from North Carolina northward to eastern Canada... RIVERS will not flood crest in some ares for a couple days, yet. Flooding in low lying areas will continue for over a week, even though the storm itself is leaving the New England area at nearly 30 MPH to the north-northeast.

If you encounter a flooded roadway - take the advice of the American Red Cross and other agencies...

"Turn Around - Don't Drown."

This will be our final Named Storm Irene posting. We will not be posting information about Named Storm Jose because it poses no threat to US coastal areas at this time.

Take Care and Be Safe!!!

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Hurricane Irene

2011-08-25T19:56:00.002-05:00

Irene continues some intensification, however, the ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) took longer than anticipated, and thus, Irene missed an opportunity for a rapid intensification cycle. Irene remains a very large Category 3 storm, and its wind-field will likely be larger than the forecast cone. Storm surge coupled with high tides are affecting Florida, and injuries have been reported.

We will monitor the development of this system. Additionally, the tropics over the next weeks should be very active, and we will provide more information as TD 10 and invest 91L continue their progression across the North Atlantic.

HURRICANE IRENE Update August 25, 2011

2011-08-25T05:24:00.000-05:00

HURRICANE IRENE Update - August 25, 2011.

We have posted tracking information and strength projections in our previous postings. Today we are again calling for all persons living in or near coastal areas from southeastern Florida all the way up the East Coast to the Canadian Maritime Provinces to BE ALERT and BE PREPARED!

Hurricane Irene is a Category 3 hurricane - a MAJOR. It is expected to INCREASE in intensity and to widen as it does.

This will involve more coastal areas as the hurricane makes it's way up the entire East Coast of the US. This hurricane will, in some way, directly affect nearly 30 million people as well as animals and pets.

Persons near the coastal areas of South Carolina and especially North Carolina, are already under Emergency Operations Center orders for regional evacuations. Persons in coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and most of New England will be under additional EOC orders of varying degrees from Friday into early next week. Persons in low lying coastal areas all along the East Coast will experience local flooding due to high wave action and storm surge potential as well as high winds, torrential rains, lightning, and tornadoes in the outer rain bands.

Do not be complacent and think that this hurricane will not affect you - If you are in or near coastal areas of the East Coast - IT WILL.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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HURRICANE IRENE Update August 24

2011-08-24T06:15:00.000-05:00

HURRICANE IRENE Update Wednesday August 24 - 07:00 Hrs EDT

As anticipated, Hurricane Irene has stated to track a little more to the north. The hurricane's ultimate track is shifting slightly more offshore as it will be traveling up the entire East Coast of the United States. Persons along the coast from Southeastern Florida all the way to the New England States will be impacted by this storm in some way over the next several days. Projections are showing a significant coastal North Carolina involvement by early morning, Saturday August 27.

Persons along the Atlantic coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, all of coastal New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces should be carefully monitoring the progress of this storm. Follow the orders from your local Emergency Management Agency.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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HURRICANE IRENE Advisory Aug. 23, 2011

2011-08-23T08:33:00.001-05:00

HURRICANE IRENE tracking models AT THIS HOUR are showing a slight easterly shift after Tuesday evening, August 23rd. However, the entire southeastern United States at THIS HOUR is still in the high strike probability cone. With most of southeastern Florida and the Atlantic Coasts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas in the highest probability area of involvement, persons in these areas should be monitoring local information broadcasts hourly.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami has published a MAJOR event for Irene as a Category 3 hurricane or higher as it approaches southeastern Florida, eastern Florida and the Georgia and Carolinas coastline. Persons in some of these areas can expect exceptionally high tides starting late Wednesday into the weekend, storm surges, high wave action, rip currents, beach erosion, wind damage to buildings and other structures, tornadoes spawned by the outer bands of the storm, lightning, extremely heavy rains, power outages due to downed trees, lowlands flooding and road closures.

This is a serious storm situation. The track will place this storm over very warm waters for a longer period of time and this will allow Irene to gather strength fairly quickly.

We will post additional details as necessary.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Important HURRICANE Irene Updates - Please read COMMENTS below main post.

2011-08-22T06:25:00.002-05:00

HURRICANE Irene was updated from tropical storm status as of the 5 AM National Hurricane Center advisory Monday, August 22.

Tracking models from many sources, including our own, are showing a south Florida landfall starting as early as this Thursday evening, August 25th.

All persons living in the entire state of Florida as well as coastal Georgia, should make preparations for this Hurricane and monitor your local official NHC and media advisories.

This will be a dangerous storm as it approaches southern Florida from the southeast. Many persons have read about the devastating 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that hit southern Florida and the Florida Keys that killed over 400 persons. Modern satellite monitoring and early warnings can prevent those types of fatalities IF citizens pay attention, follow the orders of local Emergency Management Agencies and do what they are told to do regarding evacuations and other life saving orders.

We will post additional details as necessary.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Named Storm Irene

2011-08-20T20:25:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Irene formed from a tropical wave low pressure area near the Windward and Leeward Islands on the afternoon of August 20. This storm is entering an area of very warm surface water south of Hispaniola and may reach Hurricane status by late Sunday, August 21 into early Monday, August 22. The track of this storm is projected to cross parts of The Dominican Republic and Haiti and well as eastern Cuba. The mountains in these areas will tend to weaken this storm on Tuesday and Wednesday, but persons in the southern half of Florida should be monitoring this storm carefully. We will post updates as needed or if a significant southerly shift in the projected track takes this storm over water for a longer time and the storm intensifies.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Tropical Storms Gert and Harvey

2011-08-19T13:18:00.000-05:00

Tropical Storms Gert and Harvey have not been worth mentioning to date because of their very insignificant structure and effects. This will be our only posting for these storms.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

Tropical Storm Franklin

2011-08-13T05:28:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Franklin developed northeast of Bermuda in the Atlantic over the past several hours. This storm will not affect any US coastal area and is moving northeast deeper into the Atlantic. Since this storm poses no threat to the US, this will be our only mention of Tropical Storm Franklin.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Named Storm Emily

2011-08-02T05:10:00.002-05:00

Named Storm Emily formed several hours ago from a tropical wave and depression and is near the Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean. This tropical storm is moving west at approximately 14 MPH and is entering an area which will allow some strengthening to take place before it reaches the mountains of Hispaniola. We will be carefully watching this storm's development because the upper level steering currents and our own computer models are showing a probability of a southeastern US coastal involvement in 3 to 5 days. While it is too early to forecast a precise track or intensity, persons in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Bahamas as well as southeastern US states should be monitoring this storm's development closely.

We will post additional unofficial information as warranted.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Tropical Storm Don

2011-07-28T06:16:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Don formed from a tropical low pressure area in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This storm is moving west northwest at 11 miles per hour and is encountering some unfavorable upper level shear that will prevent this storm from gaining much strength. At this time, persons from northeastern Mexico to Galveston, Texas, should be monitoring this storm system. It will make landfall late Friday evening July 29 or very early Saturday morning July 30 and will bring significant rainfall to southeastern Texas. Some lowlands flooding is possible as well as some tornado activity, high Tropical Storm winds and beach erosion due to high surf. Persons in the affected area should monitor local media and NHC broadcasts concerning Tropical Storm Don.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Tropical Storm Cindy

2011-07-20T16:13:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Cindy - developed in the central Atlantic on Wednesday, July 20. This storm is being steered to the northeast by upper level currents, well away from any US coastal involvement. This storm will dissipate into a depression or low pressure area in just a few days. This will be our only Tropical Storm Cindy posting.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Tropical Storm Bret

2011-07-18T06:41:00.001-05:00

Named Storm Bret formed from a tropical low pressure area northwest of Bermuda on Sunday, July 17. This storm will be affected by upper level shear which will prevent it from strengthening much. Those upper level currents will move Bret to the east northeast into the central Atlantic by week's end where it will loose it's tropical characteristics and weaken. This storm will allow some beneficial rains to fall in some of the drought stricken areas of the southeastern US, especially Florida, over the next couple of days. Since Tropical Storm Bret poses no major threat to the US, this will be our only report concerning this storm system.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Weather postings copyrighted. All Rights Reserved.

Tropical Storm Arlene - First named storm of the 2011 Atlantic basin season

2011-06-29T06:44:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Arlene formed out of a tropical low pressure area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This storm will not be a threat to any US coastal areas, but since the storm was named by the National Hurricane Center, we are mentioning it in case anyone has travel plans into east central Mexico later this week. This will be our only mention of Tropical Storm Arlene.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Hurricane Preparedness Week 2011

2011-05-23T05:54:00.002-05:00

The staff here at the Tropical Storm Research Center in Gulf Shores, Alabama, would like to remind all blog viewers that 2011 Hurricane Season Preparedness week is May 22 to may 28.

Please click on the link below to review preparedness recommendations:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/prepared_week.shtml

The information presented in the link can save your life and the lives of your family members.

For those persons who have been through these devastating storms - you already know what the outcome can be. For new residents to the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts, who have never experienced a Hurricane first hand, PLEASE review the information in the link above.

Hurricane Season 2011 starts officially on June 01. Our staff at TSRC will post information about ALL named storms this year so persons with family or friends in affected areas can be up to date on storm details.

Take care, be prepared and be safe!

Pre Season Hurricane Preparedness

2011-04-25T06:52:00.003-05:00

Hurricane Preparedness Week for 2011 will be held May 22nd through May 28th.

If you live in or near a Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic coastal area of the United States, Mexico, the Caribbean Islands, Hispaniola or the Central American countries, please visit the NOAA Website linked below for important Hurricane preparedness information. New residents in coastal areas should pay particular attention the preparedness recommendations and start planning for any eventuality now, before the season starts. For persons who have lived in hurricane prone areas for some time, please review the preparedness recommendations so everything is in order. There are already indications that the 2011 season will be somewhat active and we are already seeing disturbances in the Atlantic and Caribbean that usually do not occur until late May or early June.

NOAA Preparedness Information

Our Tropical Weather System Studies Group will start posting Tropical Weather System advisories as they develop. Until then, thank you... take care and be safe.

Invest 91L

2011-04-20T16:52:00.001-05:00

The NHC gives Invest 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical or sub-tropical system over the next 48 hours. After that time conditions become much less favorable for development. The GFS Models show the potential system approaching south Florida.

2011 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season Preparedness

2011-03-16T04:52:00.009-05:00

Persons who have lived along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States for most of their lives are well aware of the hazards that these storms can bring. Persons who have experienced these storms first hand do not take them for granted and prepare for them diligently each year. The staff at the Tropical Storm Research Center in Gulf Shores, Alabama, would like to mention to new residents of the Coastal areas, that we will be posting pre-season preparedness recommendations during the early part of May 2011. These postings will also be a reminder to long term Coastal residents to get your Tropical Storm and Hurricane plans in place. If you wish to use the NOAA/NHC resources to do some early reading, please use the link below. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml Watch for our own pre-season postings in early May in this blog. Thank you. `

Alert: Tsunami Warning US West Coast 3/11/11

2011-03-11T06:29:00.002-06:00

For any blog viewers with interests along the US West Coast and Hawaii:

ALERT:

The NOAA West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center has issued a Tsunami Warning for portions of Hawaii and the West Coast of the United States as the result of an 8.9 Magnitude Earthquake that has caused extreme damage to parts of Japan.

The WCATWC office has released information concerning the effect of the Tsunami which is currently traveling rapidly in several directions across the Pacific Ocean.

Please click on the link below if you have interests in Hawaii or along the Pacific Coast of the United States:

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/

____________________________________________________

(Environmental content copyrighted - All rights reserved)

Gulf Coast Earthquake

2011-02-18T18:51:00.002-06:00

At 5:15 PM, Friday Feb. 18, southern Alabama experienced a 3.5 magnatude earthquale centered 9 miles south of Fort Morgan under the Gulf of Mexico. This quake was felt from Panama City to Biloxi. No damage has been reported as yet but safety inspections are being done on area bridges.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/us/2011hmbx/us/index.html

Special Weather Statement - South and Southeast US - Jan 08 to 12

2011-01-08T06:40:00.002-06:00

A frontal area moving easterly out of the southern plains will draw upon Gulf moisture to spread cold temperatures, snow and ice to many locations throughout the south and southeastern states. This storm will affect areas in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and South Carolina over the next few days. Travel in some areas will be nearly impossible and ice formation on roads, trees and power lines may create power outages and extremely hazardous travel conditions.

Please use the interactive map link below to click on areas of interest so you can make personal preparedness and travel decisions. Take Care and Be Safe !

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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A Very Happy New Year

2010-12-26T06:57:00.002-06:00

From the staff at Tropical Storm Research Center in Gulf Shores, Alabama, please accept our best wishes for a very happy and safe New Year.

We hope that the 2011 Tropical Storm season will be as mild as in the past two seasons. Our Hurricane Preparedness postings will start in May 2011 and if any local weather conditions develop locally before May that have the potential to cause damage, we will place announcements in this blog.

Special Weather Statement - South Central US

2010-12-14T16:52:00.000-06:00

For the states of southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, most of Tennessee, most of Kentucky, northern Alabama, northern Mississippi, and northeastern Arkansas -

The National Weather Service is announcing that an ICE STORM may affect the areas mentioned starting late Tuesday night, December 14, and into Wednesday, December 15. This ice storm has the potential to cover roads with up to 3/4 inch or more of ice in these areas. Travel will be nearly impossible where the rain freezes on contact. This also has the potential to knock down power lines and trees. Please use the interactive map in the link below for up to the minute regional details for your area:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

Take care and be safe...

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Holiday Season Wishes

2010-12-07T14:37:00.003-06:00

From the staff at the Tropical Storm Research Center in Gulf Shores, Alabama, please accept our best wishes for a Happy Holiday Season, a Merry Christmas and a very Happy and Safe New Year.

We will be back to go over 2011Tropical Storm Season preparedness details in early May. If we see an unusually bad inland storm situation develop that may affect Baldwin, Mobile or Escambia Counties (AL and FL), we will post in this blog as needed. Thank you... Take care and Be Safe.

2010 Tropical Storm Season Winding Down

2010-11-06T05:12:00.002-05:00

The 2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm season will officially be over on November 30. The season has produced 19 named storms thus far and while this is not a record, it shows that the season was a bit above average for storm development.

While Tropical Storm Tomas continues to batter Haiti and western Dominican Republic with significant rains, wind and flooding today, we are reminded that there were no major event landfalls in the continental US this year (so far). There are no tropical waves to report at this time that could become storms and we hope that no new storms form during the final 3 weeks of the official season.

Named Storm Tomas

2010-10-29T20:33:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Tomas developed near the Windward Islands today. The system is rapidly developing and will become a Hurricane this weekend. This storm will move into the Caribbean Sea and will be near Jamaica as a major hurricane by the middle of this coming week. Many land areas throughout the Caribbean Islands will be affected by this storm.

We will update advisories as needed and there are very early indications that this storm could get into the far western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico in roughly 9 to 13 days.

Note - We are not tracking Named Storm Shary because it will not be affecting any US coastal areas.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Named Storm Richard Weekend Update

2010-10-23T05:14:00.001-05:00

The latest Tropical Storm Richard track modeling has shown a slowing in forward progress. It is now moving west-northwesterly at only 3 to 8 MPH and due to this temporary slowdown, the upper level steering currents will push Richard farther west than earlier modeling was showing. This will allow Richard to be over land late this weekend for a greater amount of time as it weakens and this storm may not emerge into the Gulf of Mexico until late Tuesday October 26 or Wednesday October 27. Since it is moving slowly, the upper level effects in place by the middle of this coming week may allow Richard to curve more easterly with time. However, it is much too early to be able to predict a track much past Thursday, October 28.

We are watching this event unfolding and will post unofficial updates as needed.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

================================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

================================================

Named Storm Richard - Gulf Coast Residents please note:

2010-10-21T14:42:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Richard formed out of a tropical depression earlier today south of the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean Sea. This storm is entering an area where intensification is probable. Richard is slowly turning to the west and will approach eastern Mexico and make initial landfall as a Hurricane. It will downgrade to a Tropical Storm as it travels over land and then track north-northwest. It will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday evening October 25, where it will encounter additional favorable conditions that will allow Richard to possibly intensify to Hurricane strength again. The upper level steering currents that will be present in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday October 26 will cause this storm to have a generally northerly track. A US Gulf Coast landfall could take place as early as Thursday through Saturday, October 28-30, but that is a very long range estimate based upon our own computer modeling and predicting an intensity level this far out is difficult. It is for that reason that we are advising all persons along Coastal Gulf of Mexico states to monitor the progress of this storm carefully and to have your Hurricane Preparedness plans in place.

We are carefully monitoring this storm and will post unofficial updates here as conditions warrant.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Special Weather Statement for New England Oct. 14-19

2010-10-14T05:46:00.003-05:00

Special Weather Statement for New England October 14 through October 19, 2010, for Blog viewers with interests in the region:

Two developing weather systems will merge off the Atlantic Coast of the US over the next 12 to 24 hours and will produce exceptionally high winds, heavy rains, high surf, rip currents, beach erosion and significant flooding in most of coastal New England.

While our weather research center normally does not track this type of storm, this weather event is shaping up to be a true "Nor'easter" and for that reason, we are publishing this unofficial advisory.

For residents of New England, please use the interactive Watch and Warning map in the link below. Just click on your home area on the map for current Watches, Warnings and Official Information.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Hurricane Paula

2010-10-12T05:18:00.001-05:00

Hurricane Paula formed overnight in the western Caribbean from a cluster of severe thunderstorms associated with regional convection (atmospheric lifting.) This storm was rapid to form, but the upper level winds and steering currents will not allow for immediate intensification. The computer track modeling for Paula is showing an eastern Mexico involvement through Friday, October 15, and a western Cuba involvement for the weekend. The mountainous regions of Mexico will decrease this storm's intensity over the next three days, however, it will be caught up in an upper level system that will most likely curve it's track back into the western Caribbean by early next week. We are carefully watching this system for any signs of a track change that could conceivably take it close to the Florida Keys and Miami early next week. We will post unofficial updates as needed.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Special Weather Statement - Issued Tuesday, Sept. 28

2010-09-28T18:53:00.002-05:00

For persons with interests in South Florida:

Special Weather Statement

Tropical Depression # 16 formed out of a surface low pressure area just south of Cuba and merged with the far eastern component remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. We have been watching this development for over a week and this Depression will most likely become Tropical Storm Nicole within 18 to 36 hours. There are some concerns regarding this system. While the computer modeling is not showing this as a strong wind or hurricane event at this time, it is showing significant flooding rainfall potential for south and east central Florida starting this evening, Tuesday, September 28. The potential for urban flooding west of a line from Key Largo, Florida to Miami, Florida, to West Palm Beach, Florida, is likely. Because of the rapid development of this system and the close proximity to south Florida already, we are recommending that residents of south Florida listen closely to your local media and emergency government broadcasts. This storm also has the potential to merge with the off-shore moisture and thunderstorm activity from a stationary front positioned over most of Florida, however, upper level conditions may prevent this. A dip in the Jet Stream will funnel the system toward the north-northeast off the northeastern Florida coast by Thursday and this storm will affect coastal Georgia and the Carolinas with some heavy rainfall in places and the potential for some coastal flooding and rip currents Thursday into Friday. The storm will then travel up the east coast of the US as a low pressure area by the weekend and bring with it rains and thunderstorms.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Named Storm Matthew - Possible Gulf Involvement

2010-09-23T17:12:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Matthew formed in the southwestern Caribbean this afternoon. Conditions are favorable for this storm to reach Hurricane status within 36 to 60 hours. Two weather features will be steering this storm to the north after it makes a Nicaragua or Honduras landfall early Saturday. That turn to the north is problematic for residents along the entire Gulf Coast and early computer models are showing a high probability of a Hurricane affecting the Gulf mid to late week, September 29 through October 02. We are watching the development of this system closely and even though tracking is imprecise at this time, we are recommending that residents of the Gulf Coast states monitor this storm carefully and have your Hurricane Preparedness plans in place. We will post updates as conditions warrant.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Hurricane Igor Update - Sept 16, 05:45 AM

2010-09-16T05:45:00.003-05:00

For persons with interests along the East Coast of the US:

Named Storm Igor is a serious Major Hurricane. While the projected track of Igor will be over Bermuda and then into the North Atlantic, the coastal effects of Igor will be felt from Miami, Florida all the way to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. High waves with occasional rogue waves as well as deadly rip currents along beaches will be taking place for the next week or so. This will include some beach erosion and some possible lowlands flooding. We are recommending that persons along the East Coast of the US from southern Florida to New England monitor coastal advisories concerning Hurricane Igor closely. We will post updates as needed in this thread.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Named Storm Karl

2010-09-15T06:21:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Karl formed in the western Caribbean overnight. The storm will cross the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 36 hours and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico. It may make hurricane status before it makes a second landfall in northeastern Mexico on Saturday, September 18. This storm will not directly affect the US, but some higher than normal wave action and rip currents along the US Gulf Coast may be felt over the next 4 days. This will be our only posting for Tropical Storm/Hurricane Karl unless an unexpected tracking change takes place.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Named Storm Igor ( please read comments listed below)

2010-09-08T10:57:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Igor formed immediately upon coming off the African Coast just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This storm has potential to become a hurricane by late Friday, September 10 or early Saturday, September 11. Tracking of this storm is on-going and early computer modeling is showing a track similar to that of Gaston. However, the conditions in that area of the Atlantic are a bit more favorable this week for intensification.

We will post additional "Igor" updates as conditions warrant.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Named Storm Hermine

2010-09-06T09:07:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Hermine formed out of a tropical low pressure area off the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend. This tropical storm will move into the Texas/Mexico border area over the next 24 hours with significant thunderstorm activity, some coastal and lowlands flooding in southeastern Texas, and substantial rains. Maximum sustained winds in this storm are nearing 50 MPH at this hour but are not forecast to intensify to hurricane strength. Persons with interests in southeastern Texas should monitor travel weather in the vicinity.

This will be our only Tropical Storm Hermine posting.

We are also watching for the reformation of named storm Gaston, nearing the Leeward Islands. Once this storm reaches Tropical Storm intensity once again, we will continue with updates in the Named Storm Gaston area.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

www.wootaah.blogspot.com

============================================

Hurricane Earl Update - 01 Sept. 2010, 16:30 Hrs CDT

2010-09-01T16:20:00.003-05:00

HURRICANE EARL is a major hurricane with central winds at 127 MPH with gusting to nearly 145 MPH in the northeast quadrant.

We are posting this advisory for those persons who live along the east coast of the US from northeastern Georgia to Maine as well as the Maritime Provinces of Canada or who have interests in the area.

The projected storm track will allow Earl to travel up the east coast of the United States as a Major Hurricane. Hurricane wind conditions can be expected along the east coast of the US starting later in the day, Thursday, September 02 through Sunday, September 05. Persons all along the east coast of the US should monitor local NOAA-NWS alerts, watches, warnings and advisories as well as monitoring local Emergency Operations Center press and media releases. This will be a long term storm affecting most of the east coast of the US.

This Hurricane will cause high winds, torrential rains with localized flooding, high wave action with coastal beach erosion, some storm surge with additional lowlands flooding, frequent lightning, severe rip currents along beaches and some tornadoes.

The storm tracking projections are showing a slightly closer path to the US coast in the latest modeling, but this can change daily as upper level steering currents affect the Hurricane.

Persons should be making plans for possible coastal lowlands evacuations in places as mandated by State and Local officials.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Major 'Cane Earl - TS Danille - TS Fiona

2010-08-30T16:34:00.002-05:00

Major Hurricane Earl has already surpassed Danielle when she was at her strongest. Earl is undergoing a Rapid Intensification Cycle and should be a strong Catagory Four hurricane this evening. Meanwhile, Danielle continues to weaken and invest 97L has become Tropical Storm Fiona, currently following on Earl's heels.

With the current models, the entire Eastern US seaboard from Savannah through New England lie withing the impact cone of Earl. Models have trended slightly west before showing a re-curve to the north. Depending on how far west Earl travels, the greater the likelihood for impact on the East Coast of the US.

Hurricane Earl Update Sunday Aug. 29

2010-08-29T11:27:00.001-05:00

Hurricane Earl Update Sunday, August 29, 2010 - 11:00 Hrs CDT

Earl was classified as a Category 1 Hurricane earlier today. Persons in the Leeward Islands, Hisapaniola and Puerto Rico are under Hurricane watches and warnings for major Hurricane involvement (Category 3 or higher). The storm track is still developing due to interaction with both low level and upper level winds, but most computer modeling is showing a track to the west of Bermuda and then northerly with some US east coastal issues from northeastern Georgia to New England from late Thursday September 02 through next weekend.

Persons from south Florida to New England should be monitoring the development of this significant storm event.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Named Storm Earl (Please Review Comment # 1 below)

2010-08-25T16:31:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Earl formed southwest of the Cape Verde Islands from a Tropical Depression today. This storm will follow in the 'footsteps' of Hurricane Danielle, but in 3 to 4 days, it will be acted upon by upper level steering currents and will push the storm much farther west and possibly into the Caribbean Sea near Puerto Rico early next week. Our computer modeling for 'Earl' is showing a possible southeastern US involvement into the middle of next week and weekend, but it is very early in the process for accurate tracking. Our modeling will be refined each day and we will post unofficial details as conditions warrant. We are also tracking an intense Tropical Wave that just came off the west African coast and this low pressure area may become named storm 'Fiona' within the next 36 hours.

Note: IF the anticipated track of Hurricane Danielle moves any farther to the west threatening New England, we will update that posting thread accordingly. As of this posting, Danielle is moving as predicted.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Named Storm Danielle

2010-08-23T05:12:00.002-05:00

For persons with vacation plans in Bermuda or who have interests along the east coast of the US:

Tropical Storm Danielle formed out of Tropical Depression # 6 just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the east central Atlantic early Monday, August 23. Conditions in the central Atlantic are favorable for intensification and this Tropical Storm will become a Hurricane within 12 to 18 hours. Due to upper level flow, this storm will be taken in a northwesterly direction for several days and then a more northerly path to the east of Bermuda and into the north central Atlantic. Most of our computer modeling is not showing a US east coast involvement, however, the timing of the next frontal area exiting the east coast could possibly alter the track of this storm a bit to the west. Our modeling is taking this possibility into consideration and we are watching this closely.

Our next unofficial update concerning named storm Danielle will be posted as conditions warrant.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Please Review the Comment update Below -

Atlantic Conditions Changing

2010-08-21T06:18:00.003-05:00

Our Research Center has noted that the conditions in the south central and east central Atlantic are becoming favorable for Tropical Cyclone formation. We are watching areas of Tropical Waves southwest of the Cape Verde Islands as well as southwest of the Azores which may be upgraded to Tropical Depressions or Tropical Storms within the next 3 to 7 days.

Please watch for updates here in the blog because a slightly higher risk of storm formation is now in place.

TD 5 - DISSAPATED

2010-08-10T19:02:00.004-05:00

The National Hurricane Center cancled the Hurricane Hunter flight this afternoon and reports that TD 5 has dissapated. There will be no further advisories concerning this system.

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Historical Reference:

Tropical Depression 5 has formed from a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) are extremely conducive for strengthening, however, potential Danielle has two hurdles to overcome: a short time over water before landfall, and dry air entering the system. These factors should inhibit TD5 from intensifying much beyond Tropical Storm strength.

There is a possibility that TD5 could stall prior to landfall, which would give it more opportunity to gain strength. A tropical storm WARNING has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast. Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, and surrounding areas can expect to see Tropical Storm conditions as early as tomorrow night. Coastal areas and low lying areas should be on the lookout for flooding. TD5 will also carry a risk of tornadoes and severe storms as the bands encounter instability in the upper atmosphere as TD5 comes ashore.

We will have additional updates around 6:00am CDT and throughout the day Wednesday.

Trouble Lurking for the Northern Gulf ?

2010-08-10T05:40:00.004-05:00

Our studies and research group is carefully monitoring a developing low pressure area off the Florida Keys at this hour. This Gulf low is drawing energy from the extremely warm Gulf surface waters and may become a named Tropical Storm fairly soon.

Gulf Coastal residents from Panama City, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana should monitor the progress of the developing system closely.

We will place an update here in the blog as conditions warrant regarding this Gulf low pressure area.

We are also monitoring a tropical low 800 miles north northeast of the Leeward Islands. It has some potential to increase in intensity and to affect the southeastern US in a week to 10 days.

For official updates and advisories please use the link below at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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TS Colin has Returned

2010-08-05T13:27:00.003-05:00

Tropical Storm Colin appeared to all but dissipate over the past few days, but new imagery suggests that the remnants of Colin are starting to develop again. The NHC gives the system a 70% chance of reaching Tropical status in the next 48 hours. The low pressure system is exhibiting circulation, as well as tropical storm force winds on the north side. An Airforce Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate this afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are several areas that merit attention, though none are expected to develop significantly in the next 48 hours.

The recon flight has confirmed that TS Colin has regained tropical storm status. Advisories from the NHC and Weather.gov point out that over the past two days track variances have been 200 NM on Day 4 and 250 NM on Day 5. This means that the forecast track has been off the past two days; throwing a cloud of uncertainty as to the path. Additionally, wind speed projects have been off by as much as 20 knots.

Named Storm Colin

2010-08-03T06:05:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Colin formed in the mid Atlantic early this morning out of Tropical Depression # 4. Our track modeling is showing a mainly northwesterly path to the north of Jamaica and to the east of the Bahamas by this weekend. A fairly strong upper level low pressure area to the north of Tropical Storm Colin will introduce wind shear in the upper levels and will lessen the possibility of this storm from developing. The forward motion of Tropical Storm Colin is between 20 and 25 miles per hour, which is not allowing the storm to feed itself off the warm waters that it is traveling over and further reducing the possibility of development.

This storm will most likely remain a 'fish storm' - staying out over the Atlantic, as it takes it's northerly swing off the US southeast and east coast after this weekend. There is one computer model showing a much farther westerly component to this storm and we will be watching the actual track closely. If the storm moves farther west, as a high pressure area over the US south moves easterly, there may be some storm interaction. This possibility could cause the storm to slow and to intensify, but that possibility at this time is not high.

For official updates and advisories please use the link below at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Gulf Oil Intervention Resumes

2010-07-25T06:03:00.003-05:00

After Tropical Storm/Depression Bonnie crossed southern Florida, it never had a chance to re-intensify due to it's high forward speed. As a result of the storm not being as significant as originally thought, the containment, cleaning, skimming and oil well intervention ships will be back on station today to resume operations. Coastal cleanup crews will also return to their operations today.

Please visit this blog frequently for oil related updates.

Named Storm Bonnie -

2010-07-22T17:45:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Bonnie formed out of Tropical Depression # 3 just south of the Bahamas late Thursday afternoon, July 22. This storm is impacting southern Florida at this hour. This storm will produce heavy rain in places, Tropical Storm force wind gusts to over 50 MPH and will cause localized flooding throughout southern and west central Florida over the next 2 days.

This storm will enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and has limited potential to intensify because it is moving relatively quickly at 18 MPH. Due to the west northwesterly path of this storm, the oil well containment and cleanup vessels have been ordered to port. This storm will create strong wave action along the Gulf Coast from southern Florida to east central Texas. Unfortunately, the winds and wave action associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie will wash some heavier amounts of oil ashore all along the northern Gulf Coast.

Our next unofficial update will be posted as necessary. Please use the link below for up to the minute official updates.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Gulf Storms Afftecting Oil Well Shutdown and Cleanup

2010-07-22T05:22:00.005-05:00

Some BP oil well shut down, cleanup and skimming operations have been halted due to the wave action and winds from two storms affecting Gulf waters. This is a setback for BP and Coast Guard operations and is pushing the timetable back for final shut down of the well.

One storm, south of the Bahamas, is being watched closely for development as it approaches southern Florida and potentially, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The other storm, in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, also shows signs of strengthening and these two storms will most likely affect oil well intervention operations for approximately two weeks.

Please check this blog daily for additional information concerning oil well operations as well as the potential effects of the two low pressure area storms for coastal Gulf of Mexico states.

BP Oil Well Capped - (for now)

2010-07-16T07:05:00.003-05:00

On Thursday, July 15, BP's on-going efforts to reduce or stop the oil well discharge into the Gulf of Mexico waters was finally accomplished... at least for now. BP has not been releasing information to the public in a timely manner, so we do not have 'real-time' details as to what is taking place 5000 feet below the surface. Pressure testing is taking place as far as we can tell and BP is also looking carefully at sonar and sub floor data to make certain that there are no failures of the original well casing or drilling path.

BP has said that their ultimate goal is to shut off the well entirely with a relief well procedure sometime within the next month or so, but they will also be attaching up to 4 flexible connections to the legacy blowout protector as well as the new cap stack that was installed a week ago. Those flexible lines will go to the surface for the time being to process oil from the well at an anticipated flow rate of 53,000 barrels of crude per day. This will not only supply oil for refining, but will lower the pressures in the old well system to reduce the possibility of more leaks.

As of this morning, July 16, there is no additional oil being leaked into the Gulf waters. We certainly hope and pray that it remains this way and everything that has been announced by BP and Government official works out as planned.

Cleanup efforts along the Gulf beaches in 5 states are continuing. Please monitor your local media for updates and information on cleanup progress and other official details.

Named Storm Alex - Final Update, July 01, 2010, 5:30 AM CDT

2010-07-01T05:37:00.004-05:00

Hurricane Alex made landfall approximately 100 miles south of Brownsville, Texas at roughly 7 PM Wednesday evening, June 30. This storm is producing coastal flooding due to high surf and heavy rains throughout the southeastern Texas and eastern Mexico coastlines.

This storm will move inland over the next 48 hours and will produce moderate flooding in the Rio Grande valley. The coastal surf swells from Alex have shut down some oil skimming and cleanup operations from Florida to Louisiana but these operations will start up again today.

Please watch this blog for continuing local oil spill updates as well as for any additional Tropical Storm information during the 2010 Season.

This will be our final “Named Storm Alex” update.

For up to the minute updates and recaps, please visit the NHC site below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Hurricane Alex Update - Wednesday, June 30, 5:00 AM - CDT

2010-06-30T05:13:00.001-05:00

Named Storm Alex was upgraded to Hurricane level status late Tuesday evening. The storm intensity continues to increase and this storm may make Category 2 strength before making landfall near the Texas/Mexico border late Wednesday evening, June 30 or early on Thursday, July 01. Regardless of exactly where the center of the storm comes ashore, this is a large width storm and will affect a very large area with coastal flooding from storm surge and huge amounts of localized rain. This will be mainly in southeastern Texas and eastern Mexico.

The northeastern quadrant of this storm continues to produce higher than normal tides and surf into Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the northwestern portion of Florida. This is also pushing higher concentrations of oil slick onto shoreline areas and wetlands.

We will continue to monitor this dangerous storm and will post unofficial updates as necessary.

For up to the minute updates, please visit the NHC site below. Our next unofficial advisory will be posted as conditions warrant.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Tropical Storm Alex Update Monday June 28 (AM)

2010-06-28T05:07:00.003-05:00

Tropical Storm Alex: Monday, June 28, 2010 05:00 Hrs. CDT

As predicted, the storm crossed the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend and emerged into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday. At 5:00 AM CDT, Monday, the top sustained winds are at 53 MPH with gusting to 67. This storm has slowed its northwesterly movement and that means that it will have more time to develop over the very warm Gulf waters. Our computer modeling is showing intensification to Category 1 Hurricane strength by mid-day Tuesday, June 29 or possibly earlier. The upper level steering currents are very weak in the area at this time and a northwesterly track across the southern Gulf of Mexico is still anticipated. This storm has the potential to reach strong Category 2 Hurricane strength later this week and we are anticipating an eastern Mexico or southeastern Texas landfall on Thursday, July 01 into Friday, July 02.

When this storm intensifies, the right side of the storm, especially, (east side) will have some effect on wave action and tides along the northern Gulf Coast… where the oil spill is. Some additional oil movement with this impending Hurricane is inevitable. While the central part of the storm itself will be well west of the spill area, the width of this storm will produce interaction with the spill and officials are monitoring this additional problem hourly.

For up to the minute updates, please visit the NHC site below. Our next unofficial advisory will be posted as conditions warrant.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Tropical Storm Alex - First of 2010

2010-06-26T05:05:00.001-05:00

2010 Named Storm Alex – formed in the west central Caribbean Sea early Saturday, June 26. This storm is moving to the west-northwest and is traveling over very warm surface water. We are expecting this storm to intensify slightly before it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. It will then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and it’s shape, track and remaining energy after being over land is difficult to predict.

Computer modeling is showing several possible tracks in the Gulf of Mexico due to a number of variables. We are closely monitoring this storm and will post unofficial updates as needed. However, persons all along the Gulf Coast of the US should monitor this storm’s progress.

Please use the link below for frequent updates from the National Hurricane Center in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Oil Spill - June 12, 2010

2010-06-12T17:05:00.005-05:00

The water is clear, however, small tar balls can be seen as far as the eye can see. These pictures were taken from Edgewater West, along the western beach in Gulf Shores, Alabama. There were many people on the beaches, sunning and relaxing, but the water had no one in it. In the final picture, you can see the ships skimming in oil in the distance.

According to Brett-Robinson, rentals are down by around 30%, and as conditions worsen, that number will probably rise. The odor is not bad at all for now.

Day 50 - Oil Spill

2010-06-08T17:26:00.007-05:00

Isolated tar balls have been reported and rapidly cleaned, but for the most part the beaches remain clear and people were enjoying the sands and the water today. Given the nature of this blog, it is nice to report good news in what could become a complete disaster. As this slow-motion crisis evolves, we will continue to report. The final image, presented by http://www.wunderground.com/ paints an ominous picture of what is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.

The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil Update - Waters Closed

2010-06-07T11:30:00.002-05:00

The AP and Mobile Press Register reports: GULF SHORES, Ala. -- White-and-red signs along the Alabama coast warn tourists that swimming is not advised due to the presence of oil-related chemicals.

Additional Pictures

2010-06-06T17:59:00.004-05:00

A view down the beach at Laguna Key.

The surf at Little Lagoon Pass. The thundershower in the distance was a rather loud one as it moved over the area.

A pelican watching the water for his next meal.

Gulf Shores Oil Spill

2010-06-04T23:31:00.003-05:00

This picture depicts the sand barrier to "Little Lagoon Pass", the barrier and the oil boons are in place to attempt to prevent the oil entering protected waters.

We have these pictures of our beaches and will update daily. The picture above was taken at Edgewater West, There were no traces of oil.

Oil Begins Showing

2010-06-04T15:16:00.003-05:00

Oil has begun washing ashore in Gulf Shores Alabama. According to the Mobile Press/Register, attempts at cleanup have been unsuccessful. Orange Beach has reported tar balls as well. We will provide more information as it is available.

An "Oil'Cane"

2010-06-01T02:52:00.002-05:00

From the current conditions in the Atlantic as well as conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, this season appears ripe for a major storm. The SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) are running higher than the past couple of hurricane seasons. Upper level shear is rather low, though we do expect that shear to increase later this summer off of the coast of Africa.

Sadly, the EPAC storm Agatha, while only a tropical storm, claimed over 90 lives in Guatemala. 150 and rising in Central America.

In the Northern areas of the Gulf of Mexico, the interest is on the blown well and the oil slicks and plumes traversing our waters. Dr. Jeff Masters has done some research about the possibilities, but reached the same conclusion we all have. We simply do not know.

What we do know is this: A major hurricane would be very bad. The oil spill is very bad.

A hurricane of any size will churn the water and hasten the dissipation of the oil. Would that create a doomsday scenario sending oil in the winds 10 miles inland?

I doubt it.

Would that event destroy our marshes?

I think so.

What we do know is this:

1) We have the potential for a strong hurricane season.

2) The plumes COULD affect any land falling storms in the Gulf of Mexico.

3) The oil and sheen could wreak havoc.

4) Based on the long term forecasts, we do have the option of a more aggressive season and we all have a new threat, yet, we should prepare as we do each year.

Hurricane Forecast. and Oil

2010-05-29T03:47:00.002-05:00

Personal Note

As we gear up for this season, with the complications provided by the vast amounts of crude oil spilling into the Gulf, there are signs that cause me personal alarm. None of them have to do with the oil.

SST's are high, and the Atlantic Jet is not looking good, but persistant high pressure systems near Africa could be to our benefit as presented.

This year presents a year for all of us to be especially watchful.

I will have a formal posting in the next few days.

2010 Tropical Storm Season Data

2010-05-18T06:32:00.002-05:00

Good Day, everyone... for those who have been active here at the blog for several years, you already know about the postings that we place here from late May to mid December each year regarding Tropical Storm and Hurricane Tracking. We place unofficial advisories here for the benefit of viewers who may be in harms way along US coastal areas prone to Tropical Storms.

The 2010 Tropical Storm Season will run officially from June 01 to December 01. Our analysts are already refining our software and entering weather data into our analysis programs each day. If a tropical system forms and is NAMED by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, we will start our unofficial tracking and place specific storm details here in this Forum for the potential safety of our viewers, especially those in southern Baldwin County, Alabama. Our postings will include links to NOAA websites for minute by minute updates and we will also place a disclaimer in each of our posts mentioning that our advisories are not official. A copy of those details is included below in this initial seasonal posting - just for reference.

The EL NINO and LA NINA water temperature variations in the west central Pacific Ocean affect the formation of Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico storms. At this time, the Pacific El Nino is essentially neutral. That usually means that a slight warming of Atlantic waters may take place. Since tropical storms feed off of warm water, that can indicate an increased Atlantic basin storm activity in the early part of the season. We will be watching developing storms carefully and will post here accordingly. We are also facing a situation where Tropical Storms may interact with the Gulf oil spill and that will also be discussed as needed in this blog. Please refer to Acral's oil spill updates.

Please use the first link below for Tropical System information and the second link below for active watches, warnings and data.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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Update - Oil Spill

2010-05-01T15:52:00.003-05:00

High winds and rough seas continue to hamper efforts at cleaning the spill, which means pur area could very likely see the effects of the spill.

At Friday's County Meeting in Robertsdale, officials asked a BP representative several questions concerning the dangers posed to those of us who are coastal residents. Among the questions were...

"Will there be dangers from the fumes as the oil reaches the coast?" and "Should coastal residents need to evacuate?" The BP representative had no answers but wrote the questions down promised that a technical advisor would be dispatched as soon as possible.

The associated press reports: "The Coast Guard has estimated that about 200,000 gallons of oil are spewing out each day -- which would mean 1.6 million gallons of oil have spilled since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers. The environmental mess could eclipse the Exxon Valdez disaster, when an oil tanker spilled 11 million gallons off Alaska's shores in 1989.

The slick nearly tripled in just a day or so, growing from a spill the size of Rhode Island to something closer to the size of Puerto Rico, according to images collected from mostly European satellites and analyzed by the University of Miami."

Oil Spill

2010-04-29T23:59:00.002-05:00

Forecasters predict impact in our area as early as Sunday. If this threat materializes, we will provide information as to what precautions to take as well as where to obtain training to aid in the rescue of animals distressed by this event.

The following is a transcript of an email an associate was sent in regards to the potential necessity of rescuing wildlife in the areas affected:

We are trying to contact as many people as I have contact information for in the South Mississippi and South Alabama area regarding assistance in passing along critical information regarding the oil spill. Currently, the Pascagoula River Audubon Center is coordinating with other entities to assist in response to oil coming ashore in this area. We are attempting to get word out to the general public about what they are to do if they come in contact with an oiled/injured bird or animal. If you would please consider passing this along in whatever method you would like (email, facebook, phone, etc), it would be greatly appreciated. Here is the advice given:

Do not touch the bird or animal! The material is toxic to you! Call the Oiled Bird Hotline at 1-866-557-1401 and give the following information:

1 - where is the animal/bird located exactly
2 - your name
3 - your phone number
4 - your address

At this time, we are taking names to be added to a list of potential volunteers who would be willing to attend a training in dealing with oiled birds. This workshop has NOT been set yet, but we are on standby to provide names and numbers of willing participants. You may call 228/475-0825 and give your name and number. If that training is set, you will be contacted with details.

Thanks to all of you for considering passing this along to friends and family, and asking them to do the same.

I-65 Reopens after sink hole repairs completed

2010-03-23T19:46:00.007-05:00

Most everyone has heard of the cave in alongside I-65 near Priceville. The Alabama DOT has been detouring northbound traffic around the collapse for a week and there are some signs that the work may be progressing well enough to reopen one northbound lane within 2 to 5 days, weather permitting. The heavy rains in the area have also created a landslide less than 200 feet from the sinkhole and that is also creating issues for road workers and drivers alike.

Anyone heading to the Huntsville area or to Tennessee should expect delays because of the detour.

Northbound vehicles must exit at mile markers 325 or 328. Highway 31 is the primary northbound detour route west of I-65. Please use caution if you are in that area.

UPDATE:

At 6:30 PM, Friday, March 26, ALDOT reopened the stretch of Interstate 65 that had been closed since March 17 because of a very large sink hole in the highway right of way. ALDOT officials had detoured northbound I-65 traffic onto Highway 31 for roughly 10 days and this caused frequent backup's and significant delays for northbound Interstate travelers.

Officials have a concrete barrier in place at the location as well as a lane shift and a reduced speed limit in that area. The ALDOT engineers are also watching a depression close to the first one as well as a potential landslide area roughly 200 feet from the original sink hole.

Heavy rains in the area several days before the incident took place contributed to the problem as well as more heavy rains preventing repair work for several days after the incident.

Freeze Warnings - Deep South - Jan 04-05, 2010

2010-01-04T16:12:00.001-06:00

Friends - Let me just mention, if you do not already know, that a significant cold front has moved over the deep south of the US. This will bring sub-freezing temperatures to MANY areas of the south that do not normally see freezing temperatures this time of year.

Areas along the Gulf Coast States from east central Texas to north central Florida are under various cold weather watches and warnings.

Reminder - PLEASE do not use open flame auxilliary heat sources inside your residences... carbon monoxide from open flames can kill.

Please use the interactive map in the link below for information in your area... Take care and be safe.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory

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November 30, 2009 - Official end of the 2009 Hurricane Season

2009-11-30T13:02:00.002-06:00

November 30, 2009 - This is the official end of the 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.

We thank everyone who has followed our postings this year and we sincerely hope that the 2010 season, starting June 01, 2010, will be as mild as this season has been.

Thank you... and we'll be back with hurricane preparedness information once again in May 2010.

Between now and June 01, 2010 - if any regional weather issues develop that would be of interest to the residents of Baldwin, Mobile and Escambia Counties, we will bring you any important details as needed.

Curfew from 10pm until to 6am

2009-11-09T21:32:00.002-06:00

Baldwin County officials have imposed a curfew from 10pm until 6am this morning.

Conditions here continue to deteriorate as Ida moves inland, howe

ver, at initial glance there does not appear to be much damage, nor do we see a potential for anything other than minor, isolated, damage. We will continue to monitor the storm as it moves across the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area.

Current Conditions: 3.62 inches of rain, averaging 1.4 inches per hour, sustained winds of 30 mph with one gust recorded at this station of 41 mph. In the time it has taken to write this, (which is not long) we are now up to 3.90 inches of rain.

Rainfall is expected to continue for the next 3 to 4 hours and should begin tapering off. Winds should continue to increase over the next two hours. As Jim Cantore mentioned (The Weather Channel) as the winds increase we could see a combination of saturated grounds and spotty power outages throughout the area.

Hurricane Ida

2009-11-08T13:22:00.003-06:00

While it remains to early to get a good feel on the destination of Ida, early indicators suggests that areas from Mobile County, Baldwin County, and Escambia County (FL) will likely face tropical storm to hurricane conditions with the next 72 hours.

>> HURRICANE IDA <<

2009-11-08T06:59:00.004-06:00

HURRICANE IDA is now near the Yucatan Penninsula of Mexico moving generally north at 12 miles per hour into the Gulf of Mexico. This storm is currently at Category 1 with sustained winds at 90+ MPH and will strengthen to Category 2 later Sunday, Nov. 08. The storm will encounter an upper level system which may keep it from strengthening further, but we are carefully watching this system for interaction with Hurricane Ida. Persons from the Texas - Louisiana border to southwestern Florida should monitor the progress of this storm very carefully. There are many variables which could affect this Hurricane's path and intensity over the next 3 days and the link below can be used for hour by hour updating. Listen carefully to your local Weather Office and Emergency Operations Center advisories if you are in coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

For official updates, please refer to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

Named Storm Ida

2009-11-05T05:10:00.001-06:00

Tropical Storm Ida formed out of a tropical depression in the western Caribbean within the past 15 hours. This storm developed quickly and is near Hurrican force, Category 1 at this time. The storm is affecting the Central America east coast with significant rains and wind. This will cause mudslides throughout the mountainous areas, especially in Nicaragua. The storm will weaken as it brushes the coastline and will probably enter the southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Penninsula Monday or Tuesday as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. There is a chance that the storm will re-form and strengthen again in 5 to 7 days once it gets into the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Persons along the Gulf Coast of the USA should watch this storm's progress.

Our next unofficial update will take place if and when this storm shows signs of being a threat to the Gulf Coast states.

For official updates, please refer to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

Named Storms Grace and Henri

2009-10-06T17:14:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storms Grace and Henri are not worth mentioning, but since the National Hurricane Center actually named these, we have an obligation to mention them.

Neither as been or will be a threat to land masses as anything more than a wide area of thunderstorms. Grace is already over eastern Europe and Henri is east of the Leeward Islands where it is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours into a low pressure area.

For official updates, please refer to:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

Moderately Quiet in the Tropics

2009-09-26T05:54:00.002-05:00

The 2009 Tropical Storm Season in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico has been one of the calmest seasons, thus far, on record. This is due to several factors including a mild El Nino (warmer than normal) surface water situation in the central and western Pacific which affects storm tracks in the Altantic basin.

We will continue to monitor each development area and post details as needed, once the storms are officially named by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Thank you for your support.

Tropical Storm Fred

2009-09-08T06:40:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Fred Initial posting Tuesday, September 08, 2009. Tropical Storm Fred is located southwest of the Azores and moving generally westerly at 18 miles per hour. The conditions at this time are favorable for intensification, but in 3 to 5 days, this storm will be entering an area which may lessen it's intensity and change it's track. We are carefully watching the progress of this Tropical Storm and will post updates as needed.

For official updates, please refer to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Tropical Storm Erika

2009-09-02T05:00:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Erika formed out of a tropical low pressure wave 450 miles east of the Leeward Islands over the past 9 hours. We have waited until this morning to post our first data about this storm because it is very disorganized and is moving in and out of Tropical Storm status with each overflight of the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. At this hour, the storm is just northeast of the Leeward Islands as a minimal Tropical Storm. Projections and computer modeling are all over the board on this storm, but the general movement will be to the west-northwest for 3 to 5 days before an upper level system will start to affect it's track. Persons in the Bahamas and from southeastern Florida to the Carolinas should watch this storm's progress because it has some potential for strengthening. Our next unofficial update will take place as changing conditions warrant.

For Alabama Gulf Coast Residents: There is only one computer model out of 23 that is showing any southern Gulf of Mexico involvement. This storm has a high probability of being an east coast storm similar to 'Danny'.

For official updates, please refer to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Atlantic Tropical Outlook

2009-08-27T22:52:00.002-05:00

Danny does not threaten to become a hurricane but requires the attention of interests along the East Coast. Another tropical wave, Invest 94L, off the coast of Africa has what the NHC determines to be a medium chance for development continues to move westward across the Atlantic.

The area of disturbed weather that affected our area earlier today was an Upper Level Low Pressue System, and did not pose a significant threat. Locally, our weather should be a bit clearer and warm a bit over the next few days.

We will continue watching T.S. Danny and 94L over the next few days and provide updates.

Tropical Storm Danny

2009-08-26T11:34:00.006-05:00

Tropical Storm Danny formed in the Bahamas from a tropical low pressure area this morning. Danny is moving west-northwest at just under 20 MPH and may possibly strengthen to Hurricane Cat. 1 status within the next 18 to 36 hours. However, the upper level dynamics are changing hour by hour and Danny could remain only as a Tropical Storm.

Persons from southeastern Florida to the New England states along the US East Coast should monitor the progress of this storm carefully. Projected tracking and intensity could place Danny, as a low level hurricane, near the North Carolina/Virginia border Saturday morning, August 29. High surf, dangerous rip currents and lowlands flooding will preceed Danny as it approaches the US Coastline this weekend. While persons along the Gulf Coast will not be directly affected by this storm system, anyone with interests along the US East Coast should be watchfull of changing conditions.

Our next unofficial update will take place as conditions warrant. For official updates, please refer to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Invest 92L

2009-08-25T23:36:00.002-05:00

Invest 92L is just north of Peurtro Rico and has a good chance to develop. While there is no low level circulation at this point, and dry air as well as shear continues to inhibit development, this system should attain Tropical Storm status within the next 48 hours as it will enter a period of favorable conditions for a short time.

We will continue to monitor this system.

Hurricane Bill Update 06:30 AM EDT Saturday, August 22, 2009

2009-08-22T05:23:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Bill continues on it's generally northerly track. The storm has been changing intensity between Category 3 and Category 2 strength for the past 12 hours. The storm is currently due west of Bermuda and will be moving more to the north-northeast later today into Sunday. Persons along the entire east coast of the US can continue to expect extremely high surf with deadly rip currents, beach errosion and lowlands flooding. We are renewing our caution for beachgoers to stay out of the water!

Unless Hurricane Bill makes an unexpected track change, this will be our final Hurricane Bill unofficial update.

Please use this NOAA - NHC link for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Hurricane Bill Update 06:30 AM EDT Thursday August 20

2009-08-20T05:25:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Bill Update 06:30 AM EDT Thursday August 20, 2009

Hurricane Bill has weakened very slightly to a major Category 3 storm. The Atlantic High Pressure area has continued to move Bill in a northwesterly direction. The track is expected to move more northerly within 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Bermuda Friday into Saturday. Persons along the east coast of the US from the Georgia/South Carolina border to New England can expect to see higher than normal surf and tides over the next week or so along with some beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. While Bill will not be directly affecting residents along the Gulf of Mexico, anyone traveling to the East Coast should be aware of the possible coastal tide and surf conditions.

Persons visiting or vacationing in Bermuda are leaving on commercial flights and local residents are preparing for the storm at this hour.

We will update our unofficial information as conditions warrant.

Please use this NOAA - NHC link for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Hurricane Bill Update 6 PM Eastern Time-Tuesday

2009-08-18T16:54:00.005-05:00

HURRICANE BILL - 6:00 PM USA EDT, Tuesday, Aug. 18

Bill is at Category 4 - Major Hurricane strength at this hour. An upper level Atlantic High Pressure area is continuing to steer 'Bill' more to the northwest. However, a few of the tracking models are seeing another westerly shift IF the high pressure ridge mid-point moves past the track of 'Bill' and fails to allow it's more northerly track. That possibility is statistically low, but it has been showing up as a constant in the recent track projections. At this time, we anticipate 'Bill' to continue on its northwest to north arc away from the US mainland, but if any changes to that track takes place, we will post accordingly.

For official updates, please refer to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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Hurricane Bill

2009-08-17T17:11:00.003-05:00

Hurricane Bill is expected to reach Catagory Three status and could pose a threat to the East Coast of the U.S. Meanwhile, Ana has been downgraded to a tropical depression.

The NHC has this to say about Ana:

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

-=-=-=-=-=-
You can now get updates via Twitter from us.. simply follow "Acral" on your mobile device.

T.S. Claudette

2009-08-16T12:56:00.005-05:00

Tropical Storm Claudette has formed and is nearing landfall on the Florida panhandle. Portions of Alabama and Florida should feel the effects of Claudette today through at least Tuesday. Ana and Bill maintain their westward march.

Ana has weakened somewhat, but should re-strengthen as she moves cloaser to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storms - Bill and Ana

2009-08-15T22:10:00.006-05:00

Tropical Storm Ana and Bill continue their westward advancement in the Atlantic.

The SAL and SST's are favorable for development and the shear battling Ana should lessen.

Ana remains a small storm, but is predicted to develop over the next few days and has a good chance of reaching hurricane status. Bill, on the other hand, is a larger storm, with conditions more favorable for continued development. Bill has the potential to become a major hurricane, reaching Catagory 3 or higher. Bill is tracking roughly a thousand miles behind Ana, and both could emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.

An area of disturbance in the south east Gulf of Mexico bears watching, although the potential for development remains at less than 30% as evidenced in the NOAA/NHC graphic above. Currently, this system is expected to be a rain maker for the north east Gulf Coast. Some severe weather could result from this system as it approaches land.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa, bringing the potential for development. We will have further updates and information as these systems continue to progress.

Tropical Storm Ana -

2009-08-15T04:53:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Ana formed out of the remnants of Tropical Depression # 2. This area of low pressure is continuing to further develop and is moving westerly at approximately 15 miles per hour. The central winds in this moderately compact storm are currently at 42 MPH with higher gusts to near 60 mph. Persons with interests in the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean Sea should monitor this storm's progress for Sunday - into Monday, August 16-17. This storm will increase in it's current intensity as it gets into the warmer waters of the Caribbean. The projected track at this time takes it very near to southern Florida on Wednesday into Thursday, August 19-20. Additional updates on Tropical Storm Ana will be posted as conditions warrant.

We are also carefully watching a rapidly developing Tropical low pressure area which is currently 500 miles west-southwest of the Azores. This storm is farther to the south than Tropical Storm Ana and is in an area where abundant moisture for thunderstorm development is present. There is also very little upper level wind shear at this time which may allow this Tropical low to intensify quickly. This Tropical low has the track potential to be near the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend of August 21-23, although there are several variables which may affect this storm system as it approaches the central Caribbean. We are monitoring this situation as well and will update information as necessary.

There is also a Tropical wave approaching the Florida Keys at this hour with significant rainfall and gusty winds. This area will cross into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today on a northwesterly track, and persons along the west coast of Florida, southern Alabama and Mississippi can expect occasional thunderstorm activity over the next few days.

For official updates, please refer to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."

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TD2 In the Atlantic

2009-08-11T15:06:00.001-05:00

TD2 has formed in the Atlantic and could become a tropical storm as early as tonight. As the storm develops we will be posting more detailed information. It is too soon to tell what if any threat this system might pose to interests of the United State.

El Nino in force

2009-08-05T23:21:00.002-05:00

We are seeing increased activity in the Pacific Basin and little to no activity in the Atlantic. This is typical during an El Nino event. While the Sea Surface Temperatures remain condusive for development in the Atlantic, high shear and the SAL are inhibiting development.

As we edge into Fall, we could see more development of systems in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, but for now, in our neck of the woods, all remains quiet.

July 07, 2009 - Still Quiet in the Tropics

2009-07-07T18:31:00.003-05:00

In recent years, we would already have posted at least one series of comments about a named Tropical Storm. However, this year, things are staying quiet. There are two main reasons for this at the moment. First, there is fairly cool water in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone - That area which circles the earth near the Equator where the Northern and Southern 'Trade Winds' meet and where storm formation convection (atmospheric lifting) takes place. The other reason is that the upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico and over the Central Caribbean, are fairly strong and moving rapidly. Whenever surface low pressure thunderstorms form, these upper level winds shear the top off of the storms and they loose the ability to strengthen.

As we get further into July, August and September, these upper level winds will most likely lessen in speed and that is part of the formula that creates Tropical Depressions and Tropical Storms.

We are on top of things and are monitoring the entire Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf basin for any signs of development and will let our viewers know when these systems occur - especially the one's that may influence southern Alabama, the Panhandle of Florida and southeastern Mississippi.

For those who wish to do some interesting studies, please use this NOAA link below. Thank you, from the Tropical Storm Research Center in Gulf Shores, Alabama.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=703

Information Concerning Eastern Pacific Storm Tracking

2009-06-19T05:17:00.002-05:00

Many of you have seen that "Tropical Depression 1-E" has formed in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of western Mexico. This storm will move northeasterly and inland over the weekend and will bring rains to the southwestern US and especially Texas.

We are only mentioning this today because some persons might see "Tropical Depression 1-E" on TV and wonder why we are not tracking the storm. The Tropical Storm Research Center in Gulf Shores, Alabama, does not routinely track Eastern Pacific storms UNLESS they cross over Mexico or Latin America and enter the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico. Our tracking of Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf storms is our primary responsibility because they can ultimately affect the Gulf Coast of the United States where the majority of our viewers reside. Thank you.

http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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